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User Info The Lie Of "High-Frequency Trading" Liquidity in forum [Ticker]
Genesis
Posts: 71432
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
KD^2
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1366-T....

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"The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-08-24 11:14:10
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Asimov
Posts: 26716
Incept: 2007-08-26

east tennessee
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THANK YOU! This is what I've said over and over here lately. Volume != liquitidy.

My example wasn't nearly as good as yours, now I have somewhere to point people to.

Thanks again!

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It's justifiably immoral to try to deal in a moral fashion with an immoral entity.

If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
2009-08-24 11:20:05
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Stockbrokeher
Posts: 154
Incept: 2007-06-28

South Carolina
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How can you tell the difference?

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"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have." ~~Thomas Jefferson
2009-08-24 11:26:10
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Asimov
Posts: 26716
Incept: 2007-08-26

east tennessee
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Stock: As a retail investor, you can't. You can look for hints... Like 5 defunct companies being 30% of the volume of the entire equities markets. Something's just not passing the smell test there. Or a company with the impressive worthlessness shown by AIG having it's entire float traded back and forth 3 days in one week.

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It's justifiably immoral to try to deal in a moral fashion with an immoral entity.

If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
2009-08-24 11:29:28
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Newbtrader
Posts: 3261
Incept: 2007-08-24
A True American Patriot!
Bubbleville, VA
Online
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Great point Gen.. So, that leads to the next question of.. how can someone truly determine actual liquidity? I guess the answer is retail traders can't, correct? Institutional trading desks perhaps can w/ more sophisticated metrics/data available to them, but retail traders don't have access to this data. Of course, all the HFT/momentum trading is "dangerous" in the sense that it can essentially look like there's substantially more liquidity than really exists (which makes any "real" support underneath the market very questionable).

Oh boy.. I shudder to think of what's gonna happen when the computers determine the top is in..

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"So try and figure this **** out. Catholic men and jewish women, no hats. Catholic women and jewish men, hats. Somebody's got the whole thing totally ****ing backwards." -George Carlin

Last modified: 2009-08-24 11:31:12 by newbtrader

2009-08-24 11:29:36
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Genesis
Posts: 71432
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
KD^2
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You can't.

But this is where the rocketshots come from in the market.

The problem is that the rocket shots are cheered but the exact opposite happens when a downdraft gets going too - THERE IS NO BID UNDER THE MARKET EITHER!

This practice is EXTRAORDINARILY dangerous as the floor can LITERALLY disappear without warning, and there is no accurate way to detect the difference between a REAL bid and a SHAM bid that is a reflection off some HFT guy with only 1,000 shares even though he's "representing" 10x that any on both sides at any given point in time!

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"The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-08-24 11:33:05
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Tsberts
Posts: 1809
Incept: 2008-02-05

Minnesota
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I hesitate to even comment, as my question/observation is insanely bearish:

Doesn't this HFT-driven volume actually destabilize the market, in that if it is ever turned off, it generates an instantaneous "no bid" collapse with insanely low demand, and next to no volume?

[edit: Anwered above ^^]

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Photoguy was an optimist.
In Soviet Russia, the banks are run by the politicians.

Last modified: 2009-08-24 11:35:29 by tsberts
Reason: I'm late, as usual

2009-08-24 11:34:17
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Risingcream
Posts: 2547
Incept: 2007-09-07

Online
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This is what you get when you lure all the smart honest people out of science and technology into the corruptive finance sector.

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Civilization...ancient and wicked. --Subotai

The trees in Siberia are miles apart, that is why the dogs are so fast. -- Bob Hope
2009-08-24 11:46:02
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Megatoxic
Posts: 31
Incept: 2009-08-05

usa
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So basically, HFT is just the latest form of "leverage," the very instrument that caused the crash in the first place.

Smart is not the same thing as wise.

2009-08-24 11:48:30
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Etz3l
Posts: 9103
Incept: 2007-06-26

Online
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Even more disturbing is the arrogance of these crooks,
Darth Blankfein wrote..
We take seriously our roles as a liquidity provider and allocator of capital and the effect they have on the efficient functioning of markets...

http://www.scribd.com/doc/16498635/Blank....


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Treating the symptoms of financial corruption isn’t the same as removing the causes.

2009-08-24 11:53:14
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Risingcream
Posts: 2547
Incept: 2007-09-07

Online
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All crooks are highly arrogant until they are in jail.

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Civilization...ancient and wicked. --Subotai

The trees in Siberia are miles apart, that is why the dogs are so fast. -- Bob Hope
2009-08-24 11:55:55
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Az
Posts: 1659
Incept: 2008-09-22
A True American Patriot!
Looking down the Rabbit Hole
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HFT has produced a stock market based in carnival shell game just waiting for their mark to join in the sting. Stock price no longer is based in earnings, etc. Wall street has become a rigged casino, with barkers on financial news networks crooning to the crowd to come into the tent for the big rip off.

Over simplified in description, and sad to say, but true.

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Whistleblowers R my heros
2009-08-24 11:56:16
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Blackswan
Posts: 3602
Incept: 2007-11-06

Ponzi Roller Coaster
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Nice. We have high frequency fraud trading propping up the fraud factories as insider selling dwarfs insider buying.

Just wait for the Hang Seng margin calls as credit is reigned in.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2....

Global bank holidays anyone? Yeah collapse is off the table and KD is the Easter Bunny. Warm up the circuit breakers.

Maybe there will be no corner to catch it will simply be catch the collapse.

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2009-08-24 11:59:48
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Megatoxic
Posts: 31
Incept: 2009-08-05

usa
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Gen: I have a question for you.

If HFT really works as an artificial signifier of volume, then why haven't the bankers pushed it to it's logical extreme? Meaning, why haven't they used HFT to raise volume to levels that would confirm the recent uptrend in equities?


2009-08-24 12:00:13
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Jdseese
Posts: 84
Incept: 2009-02-22
Cleveland OH
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All I want to say is, Karl my admiration for you has doubled with your reference to FrobozzCo(c)

2009-08-24 12:00:38
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Ggecko
Posts: 120
Incept: 2009-07-17
USA
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This is so absolutely true. I placed an order for 50,000 shares of a $6 stock, there was about 125,000 shares on the ask at the time. Stock trades about 7 million shares a day and already had traded 2 million shares by 10:15 so volume was up.

I got filled 8,400 shares and price instantly went up.

This is such BS it isn't funny.

2009-08-24 12:25:26
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Sushihorn
Posts: 6084
Incept: 2007-10-22 A True American Patriot!
Arlington, TX
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Karl
Even an attempt to give the false appearance of activity in a stock is illegal. Of course laws aare only for the "little people" now. But here is an example of an individual doing exactly the same thing as GS and the outcome:

Quote:
2. Between January 2000 and April 2001, defendant Lee manipulated the securities of six companies -- whose securities ordinarily traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System ("NASDAQ") -- by using multiple nominee accounts to engage in wash sales and other manipulative conduct.
(editor's note: essentially every HFT is a wash sale)

3. Lee executed wash sales -- the practice of simultaneously buying and selling an issuer's stock at the same price -- to create the impression of an active market in the six securities he manipulated. Lee typically engaged in a series of large volume wash sales at gradually increasing prices to create the appearance that the stock price was rising as a result of genuine market demand for the securities.
(editor's note: sounds exactly like what Goldman does)

4. To further enhance the appearance of an active market created by his wash sales, Lee also placed numerous unmatched buy and sell limit orders at prices substantially higher and lower than the prices at which his wash sales were executed. These "phantom" orders had little or no chance of ever being executed but were visible to the public as evidence of an active market.

5. After Lee succeeded in artificially inflating the price and volume of the securities he had targeted, he then realized profits by selling out his own position which he had previously acquired at a lower price.
(editor's note: Lee didn't have the ability to pump using buy "recommendations" either)

6. Lee engaged in his manipulative trading anonymously from his home computer using online brokerage accounts that enabled him to route his orders to an electronic communications network ("ECN"), an electronic system that collects buy and sell orders for securities and allows the orders to be executed against each other and generally displays unmatched orders.
(editor's note: ECNs and dark pools are the preferred venue for much of this activity and the direct attachment (even co-location) with the exchange network allows the ECN-style trading to overwhelm the public bid-offer.)

7. By knowingly or recklessly manipulating the securities of six issuers, defendant Lee, directly or indirectly, singly or in concert with others, violated, and, unless restrained and enjoined, will again violate, the antifraud provisions of the securities laws, specifically, Section 17(a) of the Securities Act of 1933 ("Securities Act") [15 U.S.C. § 77q(a)] and Section 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 ("Exchange Act") [15 U.S.C. § 78j(b)], and Rule 10b-5 thereunder [17 C.F.R. § 240.10b-5].


http://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints....

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http://jengafinance.blogspot.com/

Stop the looting. Start prosecuting.
Do it soon. Or folks may start shooting.
2009-08-24 12:26:30
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Raster
Posts: 1902
Incept: 2007-08-16

Rar!
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Hey KD - Is this line correct, or should it read "illegal"?

HFT is nothing more than sophisticated (and in some cases legal) front-running

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ǝɹǝɥ ǝuo ןɐɯɹou ʎןuo ǝɥʇ ɯ,ı˙˙˙dn pǝʞɔnɟ ןןɐ ǝɹɐ sʎnƃ noʎ

2009-08-24 12:33:15
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Newbtrader
Posts: 3261
Incept: 2007-08-24
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Bubbleville, VA
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Nice post Sushi.. It's sad, but it's pretty clear these days that the laws don't apply to the "big boys" like you said. Funny how we never hear of big firms getting indicted of any wrongdoings, but they pick on little guys for making pennies (in comparison).

Question though.. do the big firms actually trade shares back and forth to themselves, or do they just screw retail? It seems clear here that this guy was physically passing shares back and forth to himself, which is why it's a little more cut and dry in terms of "manipulation."

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"So try and figure this **** out. Catholic men and jewish women, no hats. Catholic women and jewish men, hats. Somebody's got the whole thing totally ****ing backwards." -George Carlin
2009-08-24 13:03:50
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Otiswild
Posts: 1341
Incept: 2009-03-09

Teegeeack
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All my earnings have been eaten by GRUE :p

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It appears that the yard wolves has grown up. Are we finally finished with the colds dead winters?
2009-08-24 13:26:11
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Ulegundo
Posts: 52
Incept: 2007-10-30
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I am trying to get my head around how Mutual Funds and the like work. Any help in this regard would be appreciated. My specific problem is with the idea that they wouldn’t want to over pay on the purchase of stock being purchased today. Would they not already have holdings in most companies that they are buying and are topping up to keep their target ratios in place. If that is the case it would seem that walking up the price would be in their interest due to the reprising of the existing holdings. TIA

2009-08-24 13:28:28
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Genesis
Posts: 71432
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
KD^2
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Uleg, they don't care. You buy the mutual fund they are obligated by the terms of their prospectus to do whatever it says.

If it says 'fully invested in X', that's what they will do - they will issue a MOC order for whatever "X" is for whatever is accumulated at the cutoff for that day.

Mutual funds that employ stockpicking (as do some) have some discretion but even there most have a maximum cash hold they're allowed to accumulate.

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"The monetary base in ALL modern monetary systems is the sum of unencumbered assets against which one is both WILLING AND ABLE to borrow." - Me
2009-08-24 13:29:56
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Tomified
Posts: 584
Incept: 2008-03-13

MO
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Since they've already ****d the shorts, the only thing that would stop a freefall would be the legion of dip buyers they have trained. I don't understand why that doesn't make the current bagholders a little uneasy.

2009-08-24 14:53:53
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Sushihorn
Posts: 6084
Incept: 2007-10-22 A True American Patriot!
Arlington, TX
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Newbtrader
I doubt the black box is trading with itself. But when the boxes simply trade with each other, the effect is the same. Although to be fair, one should add the charge of Conspiracy if there are multiple entities involved in flipping any asset back and forth. We've seen mortgage fraud rings doing exactly the same thing.

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http://jengafinance.blogspot.com/

Stop the looting. Start prosecuting.
Do it soon. Or folks may start shooting.
2009-08-24 16:01:08
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Idoc
Posts: 136
Incept: 2007-11-12

sb
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Gen,

i understand what you're saying and deep down i've always suspected this, BUT...can't the banks screw themselves walking a stock price up if true sellers put a limit sell order (or even a short) several notches above the current price and wait to be taken out?

given the high insider selling recently, couldn't the banks have "walked" themselves pricewise up into a potential freefall vacuum?

2009-08-24 16:21:49
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